Strategy
In essence: Strategic thinking is about understanding second-order consequences, avoiding preventable mistakes, and learning quickly from the inevitable ones. Good strategy often means saying no to seemingly good opportunities.
Core Ideas
- Most problems start as "good ideas" that were emotionally justifiable at the time
- The winning side is the one that most rapidly learns from mistakes
- Overreach after victory is a common strategic blunder
- Control and growth often work inversely
Examples & Insights
"All my problems started out as a good idea and all those 'good' ideas were emotionally justifiable at the time."
— Source: The Road Less Stupid
The most dangerous mistakes often don't look like mistakes at first. They appear as opportunities, good ideas, or logical next steps. This is why critical thinking and pause before action is crucial.
"A double bogey is a bad shot followed by a stupid shot... Thinking about 2nd-order consequences minimizes the probability of a double bogey. Mistakes are inevitable, but double bogeys are usually avoidable."
— Source: The Road Less Stupid
The real damage often comes not from the initial mistake, but from the hasty or emotional reaction to that mistake.
"The winning side is the one that most rapidly learns from its mistakes, makes the necessary corrections, and most swiftly responds to new challenges."
— Source: The Second World Wars
Victory often goes not to the side with the best initial plan, but to those who can adapt and learn the fastest.
"Technology is not something that humankind can control. It is an event that has befallen the world."
— Source: Straw Dogs
Strategic thinking must account for forces beyond our control. Sometimes the best strategy is adapting to reality rather than trying to control it.
"The more you try to manage your time with the goal of achieving total control... the more stressful, empty, and frustrating life gets."
— Source: Four Thousand Weeks
Sometimes pursuing maximum efficiency can be counterproductive. Strategic thinking requires understanding when to optimize and when to accept natural limitations.
"At first, I'd say yes to everything — meetings are really valuable when you're starting off. But I reached a point where I was letting myself get scheduled on six to eight hours of phone calls a day. And when I looked at them, I couldn't identify what the positive outcomes were."
— Source: CEO of No
Strategic success often requires learning to say no. The ability to decline opportunities is as important as the ability to seize them.
"For the first few years of my career, I was a relentless, never-eat-alone networker... I really enjoyed doing this. It's partly because I'm extroverted, but I guess I'm a collector of interesting people and interesting ideas."
— Source: CEO of No
Early career investment in relationships and networks can create opportunities later, but this strategy must evolve as circumstances change.
"Every strategy is really just a theory: 'We bet if we do x, then y will happen.'"
— Source: Divinations
All strategies are essentially hypotheses that need to be tested and refined based on real-world feedback.